Polls undercount level of Trump support
One of the GOP founders of the anti-Trump group The Lincoln Project said Wednesday that polls undercount the level of support that exists for President Trump.
“It is historically difficult to defeat an incumbent president, No. 1,” Steve Schmidt, a former adviser to Sen. John McCain, told Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC. “I suspect there is at least a point or two of undercount for Trump voters.”
Polls show Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden with a healthy lead in national polls. Biden has smaller leads in most of the six core battleground states, although recent surveys have found the race is tightening.
The president’s campaign has routinely dismissed polls showing Trump is behind, pointing to 2016, when most election analysts didn’t give him any chance of winning.
Trump edged out Democrat Hillary Clinton in most of the battleground states and eked out victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which had not gone for the GOP candidate in decades.
Trump’s campaign has attributed the bad polling in 2020 to the so-called “shy” Trump voter phenomenon. They say there are scores of voters who will not admit to pollsters they support the president, believing it could be socially problematic for them to do so.
The polling outlet Trafalgar Group, which was the only pollster to show Trump ahead in Michigan on Election Day in 2016, seeks to account for this so-called “social desirability” effect in its polls. The lead pollster there has told news outlets there are more “silent” Trump voters in 2020 than there were in 2016.
Trafalgar’s polls have shown a tighter race than what other pollsters have found. One of their recent surveys found Trump and Biden tied in Minnesota, a state Clinton won in 2016 that the Trump campaign insists is up for grabs in 2020.
It wasn’t pretty. To use a sports analogy: it was winning ugly. Especially when the projected loser racked up some 70 million votes. But Donald Trump’s botched plays and self-inflicted sacks throughout the year—along with Joe Biden’s steady hand and his and Kamala Harris’s appeal to an array of constituencies—contributed, cumulatively, to the Democrat’s winning margin in the key battleground states. No amount of working the refs (or Hail Marys to come) will change the final score.
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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is leading in most national and state-level polls one day before Election Day, leaving his supporters cautiously optimistic as they near the finish line. Polling shows Biden with leads in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — three states that contributed to President Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016. The former vice president is also making inroads in other battlegrounds like Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Ohio and Georgia. The FiveThirtyEight forecasting model gives Biden a 90-percent chance of winning the election.
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